First Quarter Blues

Well, the numbers are in and they're not the greatest. Look for a future blog for my morning with Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors for more insight.



The numbers are from the area's MLS.



Number of Units Sold: -12.4% 3 years of fewer transfers.



Average Sale Price: -13.6% If you purchased within the last 5 years, not a good number.



Dollar Volume: -24.3% Alarming at first but it point to the fact that the average buyer is not shopping during the winter months and with the abundance of foreclosures, investors feasted.



Again, depending on where you are in the Real Estate Cycle, you are either in pain or smiling from ear-to-ear.

The Myth of the Open House

What if I told you that if I took a flyer of your house and put it up in the grocery store, it would sell your home less than 1% of the time? Would you care if I did it? Would you wonder why I wasn't going to the grocery store 2 or 3 times a month for 2 hours to put up a new flyer? Would they make a TV show on HGTV or TLC about it?

My guess is probably not and if the thrust of my presentation to you on how I could sell your home was based on something that works less than 1% of the time, you'd probably not hire me.

Yet I'll bet you wonder about open houses.

Now, you're talking to a guy whose first sale came from an open house but that was after holding it open a dozen times and during a frenzied market, the likes of which we probably won't see here for many years. By the way, that's the last one I sold that way. I can't remember the last time someone in my office said they sold one either.

I'm probably going to anger some for telling you all this but that's how it goes. Open Houses are for agents. Let's review.

Dick and Jane are looking for a home and have decided that it's time to go from the internet to the real world but they don't know any agents or are afraid of salespeople. They go see a nice house where Sally sales agent strikes up a conversation and before you know it, they share a laugh, find some common ground and Sally gets to sell them a house. Not your house but a house.

Dick and Jane seller don't know a Realtor so they go looking at open houses to see what agent impresses them the most. Johnny super agent has the best suit and most colorful flyers. He gets to sell Dick and Jane's house (more competition for you) and you're still waiting.

Dick and Jane crook love to case houses. Look, an open house. Now we can open a basement window when no one is looking or at least we can see how much copper is in it. I don't mean to scare you and I don't think this is prevalent but you must admit, there's no other time you'd just open your home to limited supervision. If several people are in the house at the same time, your agent only has one set of eyes.

My experience with Open Houses is you get 3 kinds of people. The Lookee Loo who does this as entertainment and to get decorating ideas, the nosey neighbor and the clueless first timer who is either unqualified or forgets about your place by the time they get representation.

Remember, the homes you see on TV are in only the best, most desirable markets and if you really watch Flip This House or other such shows, they often don't sell.

Is an Open House a slightly more effective tool than random luck...yes but statistically not a whole lot more. Remember, if someone is really interested in your home, they will make an appointment. This will not only cut down on the unwanted guests but you'll get a much clearer picture of how desirable you home really is.

The Pizza Guy

Those of you who know me, know my relationship to the pizza biz. One of the things that I need to clear up is tipping your driver.

Now, a tip is just that, a reward for good service. Still, there is a certain economic reality that all tipped employees face. They didn't create the system but they rely on it to live, so keep in mind that the 'wage' they make is hardly livable without your generosity.

Keep in mind that any "delivery charge" is split with the company to cover the exorbitant costs for insurance. Surely the dollar or so that a driver gets from that barely covers the wear and tear and increased risks involved with your dinner arriving safe and hot.

So, to the matter at hand. Keep in mind that this is for around Cleveland and each market will have its own scale. $2 or 10%. That easy. Now, if you're buying a huge amount of pizza, you may scale it back a bit but in some shops, it's customary to split a big tip with the kitchen help.

So, $2 or 10%. As my friend in Sandusky says, "don't anger anyone who can be alone with your food."

What a difference a year makes

I was having a conversation with a much younger person the other day and as the "old person" I told them that it's true what us old folks say about time. It does appear to move faster the older you get.

I'm not sure when it goes into hyper-drive. Looking back I guess it was mid 30's. Now I can't believe it's April!

Well, it was just over a year ago that I lost my grandfather. It was a tough loss because in many ways, he was more of a father to me. Certainly the predominant male figure in my life although I have a strong and continuous relationship with my father who lives in Missouri. Gramps was always nearby though.

The thing I always envied about him was his mellow demeanor. He always seemed to have a smile and a spring in his step. Even though he grew up in the depression and had an alcoholic father, he found a way to survive. Even when he found himself having to deal with grand kids moving in, he accepted it, and made the best of it.

He was a self made man, becoming a piano tuner and starting his own business despite having only a 9th grade education but believe me, he was street smart! He never made a fortune but he always seemed to have what was needed. It pained me to see him wither the last few years. Mostly, it was watching him realize what was happening and not liking it very much. Still, in between the bad days, there was that boyish charm.

In many ways he was the quintessential American story.

So, now a year has passed. Every now an again I see something that stops me in my tracks and I think of him. Both a tear and a smile come to me. Where did that year go?

I once watched an episode of Kung Fu. "Grasshopper" had returned to the city of his Master and upon being asked how life was, his reply was, "The years are passing slowly" and you knew he meant that was good.

Way to go Tribe!

Although not in attendance, I love that opening day has arrived and yes....no snow. An exciting game too! Still, I'm waiting more to see how the Cavs finish the season and I'm leading the NCAA bracket I'm in, so there's cash on the line! So much to do, so little time.

Oh, did I mention golf season?

The sky is falling....or is it?

I know that as a real estate professional, I'm supposed to put a positive spin on everything in hopes I'll convince you to get moving. I think we all know the polish is off the apple.

But wait......it all depends on where you are in your real estate cycle.

OK, if you're trying to downsize, sell outright or are dealing with an estate sale, you have my sympathies. Prices have been driven down and there's so much competition that it can sometimes be difficult to get noticed.

However, if you're a first-time buyer, why are you sitting there? Interest rates are still at historical lows and prices have been rolled back to turn of the century. Seriously, stop wondering if you should and just do it!

Got a better job and want to move up? Afraid of the "hit" you'll take on your current home? 10% loss is 10% loss accross the board, so when you lose that money off your $100k starter and are looking in the $200k + range, guess who wins...YOU!

So you're still wondering if the time is right. Can it get worse? Of course it can, we could have another September 11th, the next president could be worse, a meteor can hit us. However, barring a total collapse we're pretty close to bottom and once the market starts to move up again, you'll be faced with even more strict lending, higher interest rates and lower inventories.

Be smart about it. You can't get into as much trouble with bad lenders as you could a couple of years ago but enlist trusted professionals, listen to friends and family (the ones who make sense), do your homework. Remember it's a Buyer's market, not a fire sale.

Time to Blog

Blog Blog Blog. I don't know why I resisted because everyone knows how I like to 'talk' and I'm never short on opinions. Still, I thought Blogs might be the Pet Rock of the 00's. Seems I was wrong.

Here's my chance to share my experiences in this turbulent time in our history. At best, I hope I can help educate and communicate about the ever changing real estate landscape. At worst, I hope I can give you a few moments to laugh or think or be distracted.

I hope you find the words here helpful in some small way.

Scott